17 October 2019, 11.15-12.00
Amin Dehdarian, Postdoc at ETH Zurich
From mental models to dynamic modeling: scenario building for the future competitiveness of rail freight transport in Switzerland
In the first phase of the Mobility Initiative (MI) project “Future environmental performance of Swiss freight transport: impacts on rail cargo competitiveness”, interviews are conducted to reveal the mental models of several SBB Cargo experts and then their diverse viewpoints are transformed into scenarios for the future challenges of the sector. In this respect, this talk summarizes the methods used for this transformation in four steps. First, the qualitative data gathered from expert interviews are categorized into a set of factors through a coding process derived from the Grounded Theory. Second, Vester’s sensitivity model classifies these factors based on their level of criticality and impacts on other factors. Third, the relationships between different interacting factors are investigated by using Social Network Analysis. Finally, a simple example shows how the results are used as input for System Dynamics modeling through participative model building sessions in the next phase of the project.
View talk on ETH Video Portal